Q- reenter SMN and DUG on their 6% pullbacks so far today or wait and see what happens tomorrow? How high/long do you think the oil bounce will go?

I would not be buying DUG / SMN dips. I am waiting for the bounce to become tired. It could go on for a few days.

Ok, thanks. It gives me pause to hear e.g. Seymour on FM today saying “commodities are back in vogue”, makes it sound almost like he thinks this is an inflection point.

Thanks for the update, Q. It looks like you are having a great time out there.

I am thinking of a variant patriot trade - QLD/FXP. I got the QLD part. Or QLD/SMN, but that seems to be what everyone is doing, out of commodities into tech. Hmmm. Where are the trades that are easy and not crowded?

Lap, how about this: UYG/SKF? You’ll make money on one, or the other, you just don’t take position at the same time. Perhaps I’m just being silly. 

Patriot Trade return this week: 3.7%

Q, looking good on tv this week. Tatro vs. Terranova… Tatro Ftw.

You’ve said that you are watching an upside trigger point on the SPX closing of, was it 1296?, that would make you bet the SSO and DDM for a move up to 1340/1350…

Are you also in agreement with the sentiment that the downside trigger point on the SPX closing of 1265/1270 implies a probable retest of the July lows?

How will you plan to trade either scenario?

I am now starting to wonder why I don’t just own the Patriot Pair Trade and call it a month.

Yep EEV is hauling arse today. And to think I was worried about it’s relative strength at 90

But the S&P;is looking like its gonna close below bounds

Qman, I share that sentiment, too. In my case, I should have heeded the saying “sell in May and go away”, and I would have been a lot happier.

In the meantime, my 2nd garbage trade (ABK) continues to work and that’s scary. 50% up in 2 weeks. Maybe time to bail.

Since August 1st, the Patriot Trade has had a total return of 18.2%, which does not include today’s 2% difference.

Q -

I actually entered the Patriot trade on your first suggestion and have been holding only that position in my portfolio. I haven’t even bothered with another trade this month. I am going to stay with it until it stops working.

What’s up with the SRS? Why is “double short real estate” almost at an all-time low? These ETF’s are a real piece of work.

Nice pair trade, but what about your long DV hold on tv? That was horrible advice.

Dan, that is why I always mentioned a stop.

Patriot trade taking a beating today. I wonder why EEV is down so much today? Oil and gold are both down. These ETF’s are sometimes a bit bizarre in their behavior.

Is it just me, or does the market feel a whole lot worse than Naz down 8 and Dow down 8? For some reason it feels like -200 down day.

Misterc, It is because the emerging markets are so tied to commodities. When they bounce, the *EEM will bounce and *EEV will get hit.

Wonder where Qman is these days…

The so-called rally looks toast. Doom and Gloom trade (SDS/EEV) is working for me, and will get rid of QLD at the next up-day if it ever comes soon. Turnaround Tuesday, hopefully?

AMD is trading well in dismal tape. So is WEL, though this one I have a mixed feeling (a company specializes in oil well disaster cleanup, as in Iraq war).

Q on fast money friday you said the fxi looked good, does that mean the patriot trade (long eev) is over?

Hey LaPrima -

Thanks for reminding me of AMD. That stock is starting to look a tiny bit healthier. I need to put that one on my radar.
I am also in the Patriot Trade.

What do you think of Gold? Seems to be at an inflecion point.

Mist - I’ve been watching GLD the last couple days and have set an alert to wake me up below 78 (for what that’s worth).
Thoughts on UYG? I’m thinking of legging in for a Tue bounce. In looking at the dailys one can detect an up/down pattern. I’m not above taking money from emotional trades.
Is Pat Trade still working (I’m out)?
Thoughts?

My alerts for GLD set at 78 and at 68. Right now, with the economy slowing down just about everywhere that counts (read deflation), the only point of having gold to me is a disaster hedge (like World War III with Russia or beginning of it with war in Iran - Cheney is in the Caucasus region, watch out). So just in case I have a few out of money GLD calls, and out of money USO calls. Or you could use DGP (gold double long).

I hope a Turnaround Tuesday comes tomorrow for my fins exposure. One problem is that the traders this week are second stringers who won’t (or can’t) commit a large chunk of money while their bosses vacation. So it could drift lower all week. Ughhh.

Danz -
LOL. “Wake me up”. It looks like we all (see laprima above)have the same take on GLD. Everyone looking to make a play around 78.
Yeah...the “pairs trade” is still working. It’s not changing my life, but it has made slow steady gains. It did have one terrible day last week, but for the most part it has been a nice trade. For example, today I was up 1/2% in a terrible tape. I think I am up around 5% since I took the position.
UYG?? I’m not above making money on emotional trades either. I see what you see, but I would definitely keep my stop tight. Below $18.50 and I am outta that one!
Good luck.

Where’s QMAN??

Laprima, Misterc - Thx for the excellent thoughts.
BTW - Isn’t Qman heading back to TV land (FastMoney)?
Have a great evening!