Boy it is tough not to wade in here. I agree though that better to know we going up than to guess.

Gold is up today and holding over $900.
If the Fed. starts to raise rates (IMHO it wont happen until 2009), doesnt that signal inflation exists and gives gold and commodities a bid?
Is the idea that buy higher rates the dollar is more attractive?

I’ve been checking the option volume on GLD (gold ETF) for 2 weeks, and I occasionally see a spike in daily volume in certain strike prices. The most recent one is today, July 89 call. July 91 call had 10K vol in one day last week. Sept 90 calls and 100 calls had recent large vol day, and that was when the gold was hovering around 860. Haven’t seen noticeable spike in puts.

I followed one of these calls with one-day large volume 2 weeks ago (July 85 call, someone bought 2K) and that turned a nice 70% profit.

ROYL seems to be holding very strong..

Q
When money begins leaving the commodities where will it head to?

Not doing much today except shorting OSK, GME, and peeling off my gold positions.

OSK a monster winner on the darkside right from the open!

OSK short working really well for me hh.

I am also playing VLO short as well.

RIMM short not bad either.

Nice VLO I will pass for now.
I shorted RIMM this am based on my post to someone on this board last night but covered for profit.

I’ll throw out my yahoo instant messaging id for anyone that wants to share ideas real-time.

hedgehog1993g

it is not working today though (I have pc problems
hope to have fixed by tomorrow.)

Covering 1/2 AM short.

Any thoughts on ANR??

Can anyone say “Hindenburg”??? YIKES…

Nobody knows exactly when these things will break. The US $ is in the tank.  Stay true to your charts.

Put 20% of cash into Income Mutual Fund on this meltdown.  I have been holding 100% cash on one mutual fund.  I need to own equities, so I am slowly averaging in.

Trading accounts: shorts worked wonderful today.  Scary market for sure. 

Stay safe everyone.

Nice work anbion on that AM short from yesterday and RIMM and OSK from today. too bad I didnt get your VLO.

hh

misterc

Here’s my read on ANR:

1) if it breaks higher than its prior closing high of 100.05 it could continue to run. If you short it here that is a logical stop loss point in my mind.

2) On the daily chart though it looks like it is beginning to roll over. I favor a short on a break of the 20-sma trend line on the daily chart because there is currently about $17 of free space between the 20sma and the 50 sma

Hope that helps.

Thanks Hedge -

You and I have very similar trading strategies / techniques. I might put both trades on (conditional orders).

QMan,

I’m thinking of going long on FXP. Nice cup and handle breakout today, and I don’t believe in the Olympics boom anymore (just because so many analysts have said that). What do you think?

Here’s the latest post from Matt Trivisonno. I posted the link to his site last night. I have zero affiliation with him, but just like Quint I like his style of reading the tea leaves of the market. He is suggesting the possibility of a multi-day short squeeze as early as tomorrow.

http://www.trivisonno.com/

How I’m Playing the S&P;500 Crash
June 26th, 2008

I don’t have time to write a lot now, so this will be brief. I may update this post later, so be sure to check back.

Basically, I’m looking for a replay of the XLF chart. When XLF approached the March low, it snapped back viciously to shake-out all the late-coming shorts and rallied for 3-4 days before resuming its descent. SPY should do roughly the same thing. There are a lot of late-coming shorts piling on now, and SPY is within striking distance of the March low, so we could see this as early as Friday.

Smart-money shorts will see huge profits on their screens, and will begin to take them. The shorts with the biggest balls will even go long. That will start the short squeeze, and since the market is so over-sold, the dead-cat bounce could run for a few days.

I have huge piles of SDS, QID, TWM, SKF, SPY puts, and QQQQ puts, and I may take a few more profits at the March low. Then again, just in case this things snaps completely, I might not. I have some cash on hand to short the peak of the expected short-covering rally, so I may not temp fate. But you get the idea, right?

Off-Topic Question.

Who uses Firefox browser in this room instead of Internet Explorer?

I switched 2 weeks ago and will never go back. I am amazed at its stability and usefulness compared with IE.

Hedge -

I use Firefox. FAR better than IE. Firefox is as solid as a rock.

Take a look at ABAT. Good move on a bad tape Thursday.