Traders are waking up to the fact that the honeymoon period is over and it is now time to get to work if they are going to make this relationship with stocks a successful one. Despite the previous week’s fireworks, earnings season has so far fizzled out with Alcoa delivering a less than spectacular report and poor guidance from Home Depot and Sears, who many are looking to in order to determine if the consumer has any jingle left in the pocket book.
After publishing this weekend’s piece entitled Success is in the Style, I realized that the topic doesn’t end there and in fact, it doesn’t even begin there. While I felt the piece met my topical goal, it made the massive assumption that the trader had a style to adhere to in the first place. Unfortunately, that isn’t always the case rather most individual traders are aimlessly searching for something that works for them and unfortunately many never find it.
One of the most common mistakes most traders make is to determine the success of a trade based on the outcome rather than the decision making that went into the trade from the onset. Curtis Faith articulated this simple yet profound thought very well within the book ‘Way of the Turtle.’ I realize the actual thought of NOT correlating the success of a trade with the direct results of that trade sounds ridiculous, however when one follows a set system or style of trading, with a fixed set of rules, if the system has been proven to work over the long term, the short term results should not at all alter your thoughts about that system.
One of the greatest litmus tests for the true action taking place in the market, that is so often better than any read of the ticker, is your last few trades.
The bulls are running today and one has 3 choices, fight them, step aside, or run with them. I am choosing the later but each step I take, I am making sure I know the nearest exit because at some point the running will stop and I don’t want to get trampled by all the people looking to jump out of the way.