I really like how DRYS is just hanging out in the critical $3.00 zone getting ready for a break one way or another. I like the risk reward so I’ve added to my position here.
The market is hem hawing back and forth with little to no ‘theme.’ It feels very blah to me and the more I go through charts the more uninspired I am at this moment. There are some potential themes in the works, like a silver bounce or continued semiconductor mojo. The bids just aren’t there yet and it seems to me that summer may have rolled in a bit early.
I have been out of the country since my last blog post so I have not been trading. When I got in today, after running through a slew of charts, I decided to book 1,500 shares of MOD @ $15.96 for no other real reason that to book some quick coin.Read More
It’s been quite a long time since I’ve consistently ‘blogged’ so I’m going to give a quick little run down of my current positioning to catch everyone up to speed. Below is a snap shot of a small private fund account I’ve started trading that has approximately $800,000. Just so I’m clear, our firm manages approximately $50MM in fee based separate accounts. These accounts are managed with a very passive strategy utilizing a combination of index funds, ETF’s and core individual stocks. While I may at times have the same positions in each, this blog will primarily discuss the account mentioned below.
Each of these positions have been taken within the last few weeks so they are still relatively new. I’d have to say that Cisco (CSCO) is probably the only name no longer currently in a buy range as yesterday’s gap and go after earnings is tough to chase here in the short term. I had a total of 7,200 shares but booked half the gain on yesterday’s move. In the longer term however, as you’ll see from the chart below, this stock hasn’t even begun to move and is one I’ll be adding back to in the very near term.
Here’s a rundown of each name and my thoughts.
AG – I’m drawn to silver and silver stocks here as they look like they may pull a bearish turned bullish chart pattern. The stocks certainly look like death but what you’ll notice is on the weeklies these names are actually seeing longer term MA’s turn flat to up. With my current bullish stance on all things commodities and my view that inflation is coming straight at us 100mph, I like the play on silver from an inflation hedge and industrial metal aspect. Because this stock is in the toilet and this is an anticipatory reversal pattern, I’ve got a lose stop around $1.00 below so I’m risking around 5k or a little more than 50bps.
CAMT – This is one of my favorite weekly charts. The stock looks like an undiscovered winner to me and there is not much more that I can say to bring any more color than this wonderful chart.
CSCO – As mentioned above, and in other blog posts I’ve written HERE, the stock hasn’t moved in almost 10years despite growing like a weed, shrinking its outstanding stock and paying a healthy divvy. I’m a longer term holder with a stop at $20 and will continue to build around this name as it looks to break out of this decade long consolidation pattern.
DRYS – My view on DRYS is it is bottoming and starting a new uptrend. The stock is a total pig and has been on life support for ages. My stop here is $2.00 and I anticipate holding it a long time.
INTC – One of my favorites and almost an identical pattern to that of CSCO. The stock has not moved in ages, literally ages, and yet it has increased revenues and profits 200%, shrunk its outstanding stock and pays almost a 4% dividend. There is someone unloading legacy shares in this $27 area and has been for the last few years. When they’re done selling this stock breaks higher and will be one of those stodgy blue chips that when you least expect it, will move about 50%.
KLIC – Like some others, there is not much I can add to this beautiful chart. I just added this one yesterday on the dip. It broke above 10 year resistance recently and then has come back to digest that move. I’m a buyer here with a stop around $11.50
MOD is a weekly cup and handle break that also is digesting its recent break out. My stop is $13.40.
SD looks to be starting a new uptrend after being in the toilet since its 2008 fall from grace. I have a stop around the pivot lows of $6.00
SLV – Again I’m drawn to silver and silver stocks here as noted above in AG. This is purely a trade the trader play as I’m baking on a bearish turned bullish break. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a breakdown first, followed by a rapid reversal. This of course would wash out any remaining weak holders and really irritate new buyers like myself. I have a lose stop here around $17.00
SONS – This play is really quite simple. The technical approach is an anticipated break out of a decade long consolidation period however I became a buyer of this after I saw the CEO pick up 1MM shares for his personal account. Normally I laugh at executive buying and selling since they are notoriously terrible timers, however this one caught my attention because of the unique technical spot the stock is in and the fact that there was little to no fan fare surrounding the executives purchase. My stop is around the $2.50 level.
So there you have it, my current holdings and positioning for the world to see.Read More