In case you missed the memo, semis have begun a new longer term uptrend. The SMH break reminds me of the IBB break many years ago. I keep looking for and discovering new ideas in the sector that are worth keeping on the radar. While my basis in FORM is currently $10.43 over a few buys, I don’t think the .40 is all that big of a deal when you consider the move this chart looks as if it is projecting.
If you glance at the monthly you can get an idea just how steep this guy has fallen from its 2007 high. The low level cup and handle is just now breaking and projects a move to the 15 – 16 range.
As you can see from the weekly below, the stock recently came under pressure. The shake certainly weeded out some shorter term holders but didn’t impact the longer term chart at all. In fact, the dip made for a better entry and now has give a pivot for a recent stop and risk reward.
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There was a time that most of my day was spent gallivanting the interwebs. I would dialog back and forth with my 10,000 twitter friends and post trade ideas primarily on the daily or intra-day basis. It was enjoyable but over time I realized how out of touch I became with real life and human interaction. Yup, I know that sounds a bit nuts but I would spend about 12 hours a day sitting in front of my computer and eventually that took its toll. I had put on about 50lbs in unwanted weight, something funky was going on with my posture and when the market wasn’t acting as I thought it should, I was extremely unpleasant to be around. I made a change.
I’m happy to say that over the last two years I have spent much less time in front of the computer watching intra-day ticks. My investment homework hasn’t at all slowed, however my time frames have been expanded and rather than looking for a few day, multi-point move, I’m now looking for a months to years in longer term trends. The 50 lbs is gone and at the age of 39, I’m now in the best shape of my life, by far. The new focus on human interaction has resulted in a boom in my primary business of Tatro Capital where we are now quickly approaching the 100MM mark which has further mandated a longer term approach and catching the meat of the move, rather than the short term pops and drops.
I’ve missed the web interaction and in addition I’ve slowly started to wonder how I can begin training my three sons in the art that I have learned and worked at over the last 20 years. This blog will now be dedicated to just that. My goal will be post on ideas and trades I’m taking not only for client accounts but in personal accounts as well. Basically, something with high beta or a pure chart play you can assume is for me alone however I’ll try and clarify the best I can.
I hope you’ve been well over these last few years and I hope you check back often as I’ll be updating as I trade. It may not be in real time but with these ideas a real time update shouldn’t make that much difference.